Saturday, October 29, 2016

US Media Giants Caught Skewing The Polls For Hillary

A few days ago the solidly 'liberal' mainstream media (and enough British news organisations to make us worry that our country is following along the road to dystopia) were crowing that the American presidential election was all over bar the shouting and Hillary Clinton could order new curtains for The White House. As evidence of their claims they cited an ABC / Washington Post opinion poll which gave 'Crooked Hillary' a 12 point lead. Well it seems Hillary is not the only crook in the election process, her supporters in the media are all as bent as a boxing day turd, if this and other big leads claimed for the Democrat are anything to go by. just yesterday, after coming under forensic scrutiny, the next round of polling for ABC / WaPo suggested Clinton's lead had collapsed in the space of less than a week to six points. This near impossible turn round attracted even more in depth analysis of the information gathering method used by this polling company (whose polls for other organisations show very different results) and whaddaya know? Today as the latest version of this poll shows Clinton's lead has crumbled further to just 2 points, which is within the margin of error.

Amusingly for those of us on the civilised side of The Atlantic, these new results do not reflect the latest FBI bombshell which may impact the Clinton vote as it raises the trustworthiness issue again for the Democrats campaign. Polling was concluded on October 27th. Also the poll data is distorted by an 8-point sampling advantage for Democrats

Having a qualification in statistics (not degree level at the time but probably higher now, in this era of multiple choice questions)I sat down with our Boggart Blog / Daily Stirrer colleague Xavier, who has a MSc in Engineering and a BSc in Mathematics, and we did a bit of anlaysis of our own. But first, let's look at what the pollsters say about it:
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 24-27, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,148 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
So what happened? For months, since the UK General Election in 2015 in fact, we have been arguing that what mainstream media publish are not unbiased polls but goal-seeking reports. Research has shown that with very little tweaking of the way questions are phrased and how 'undecideds are handled polls can be 'weighted' to produce a result in line with whatever result is desired by the commissioning organisation. The easiest way to do this is by simply distorting the make - up of the sample pool.

Another trick used widely by organisations running polls on this presidential election also came to our attention during the UK election of 2015, the technique of restating the question about voting intention but excluding minor parties. In Britain when voters who initially said they intended to vote for anti - establishment libertarian party UKIP were given a straight choice, Conservative or Labour, it was anticipated most would go Conservative. In fact UKIP's polling at around 10 to 15 percent was largely due to disillusioned working class Labour voters deserting 'the people's party because they felt it had become elitists, a party of bureaucrats, academics and professionals and was out of touch with working class concerns. The fact that while polls showed the parties neck and neck, the Conservatives won the popular vote by seven per cent was attributed largely to this polling error. In the USA, the minor party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, polling jointly at around ten per cent pose a similar problem for polling firms. When voters are offered a four way choice Clinton's rapidly diminishing lead drops to within the margin of error. Take out the wildcards and the lead widens.

All this shows is that rather than Johnson taking votes from Trump and the Republicans while Stein takes somewhat less votes from Clinton and the Democrats, in fact both are taking votes from Hillary Clinton. We also found while studying the data that there is some truth in the claims that Stein is doing a lot better than published polls show because she is picking up the votes of Bernie Sanders supporters disgusted at the way the Democrat National Committee colluded with the Clinton campaign to steal the nomination from Sanders.

WikiLeaks have covered this and even published a handy guide 37-page poll-rigging guide on how to "include ethnic 'oversamples' as required" to manufacture the desired results.

With today's latest ABC / Washington Post poll, the real "smoking gun" of how polls are manipulated to manipulate votes is revealed as the pollsters admit that the collapse of the apparent Clinton lead is "not mainly about people shifting in their voting intention" but about how their sample pool was constructed.
"Changes in the poll’s latest four nights (due to a public outcry from people in online news sites who understand something of how polls work) compared with the previous four are not mainly about people shifting in their candidate preference, but about changes in who’s intending to vote." Those saying they were not likely to vote were being asked who they would vote for if they HAD to vote. Thus a (relatively) large number of Blacks and Hispanics who said they did not plan to vote and were unlikely to change their minds, were nudged to declare a preference for the Democrat candidate.
So that's one you manufacture incredible results.


ABC / Wapo Poll

So why would allegedly respectable organisations like ABC / Wapo claim that the 10-point swing (in less than a week) was driven by changes in "who's intending to vote," but their own data shows just a 2-point swing in people who said they were "certain to vote" on 23 October, when the poll reflected a 12-point Hillary lead, and 27 October when the lead had collapsed to just 2 points. Are we really expected to believe that a 2-point swing in voter intentions somehow translated to a 10-point swing in the poll result? Something tells us it had a little more to do with excluding ethnic 'oversamples' after being caught cheating for the benefit of their favoured candidate."

So, now that ABC / Wapo have effectively declared their own poll utterly useless, the question is what were their motivations for skewing their polling data? Consider these points:
  • Trump is simply experiencing a huge surge in momentum...seems odd to have this kind of surge on minimal news (remember the poll was taken prior to the recent FBI disclosures).
  • ABC / Wapo pollsters got a slap on the wrist from the Hillary campaign for getting a bit overzealous on their manufactured 12-point "lead" which could have resulted in lower voter turnout for Hillary as supporters decided their vote was not needed.
  • >ABC / Wapo reviewed early voting stats and realized their polls were in no way reflective of reality and decided they'd rather not lose ALL credibility (though may be too late for that).
So does this mean Trump has a better chance of winning than mainstream media are willing to admit? You may say that, we of course could not possibly comment.










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US Media Giants Caught Skewing The Polls For Hillary

A few days ago the solidly 'liberal' mainstream media (and enough British news organisations to make us worry that our country is following along the road to dystopia) were crowing that the American presidential election was all over bar the shouting and Hillary Clinton could order new curtains for The White House. As evidence of their claims they cited an ABC / Washington Post opinion poll which gave 'Crooked Hillary' a 12 point lead. Well it seems Hillary is not the only crook in the election process, her supporters in the media are all as bent as a boxing day turd, if this and other big leads claimed for the Democrat are anything to go by. just yesterday, after coming under forensic scrutiny, the next round of polling for ABC / WaPo suggested Clinton's lead had collapsed in the space of less than a week to six points. This near impossible turn round attracted even more in depth analysis of the information gathering method used by this polling company (whose polls for other organisations show very different results) and whaddaya know? Today as the latest version of this poll shows Clinton's lead has crumbled further to just 2 points, which is within the margin of error.

Amusingly for those of us on the civilised side of The Atlantic, these new results do not reflect the latest FBI bombshell which may impact the Clinton vote as it raises the trustworthiness issue again for the Democrats campaign. Polling was concluded on October 27th. Also the poll data is distorted by an 8-point sampling advantage for Democrats

Having a qualification in statistics (not degree level at the time but probably higher now, in this era of multiple choice questions)I sat down with our Boggart Blog / Daily Stirrer colleague Xavier, who has a MSc in Engineering and a BSc in Mathematics, and we did a bit of anlaysis of our own. But first, let's look at what the pollsters say about it:
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 24-27, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,148 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
So what happened? For months, since the UK General Election in 2015 in fact, we have been arguing that what mainstream media publish are not unbiased polls but goal-seeking reports. Research has shown that with very little tweaking of the way questions are phrased and how 'undecideds are handled polls can be 'weighted' to produce a result in line with whatever result is desired by the commissioning organisation. The easiest way to do this is by simply distorting the make - up of the sample pool.

Another trick used widely by organisations running polls on this presidential election also came to our attention during the UK election of 2015, the technique of restating the question about voting intention but excluding minor parties. In Britain when voters who initially said they intended to vote for anti - establishment libertarian party UKIP were given a straight choice, Conservative or Labour, it was anticipated most would go Conservative. In fact UKIP's polling at around 10 to 15 percent was largely due to disillusioned working class Labour voters deserting 'the people's party because they felt it had become elitists, a party of bureaucrats, academics and professionals and was out of touch with working class concerns. The fact that while polls showed the parties neck and neck, the Conservatives won the popular vote by seven per cent was attributed largely to this polling error. In the USA, the minor party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, polling jointly at around ten per cent pose a similar problem for polling firms. When voters are offered a four way choice Clinton's rapidly diminishing lead drops to within the margin of error. Take out the wildcards and the lead widens.

All this shows is that rather than Johnson taking votes from Trump and the Republicans while Stein takes somewhat less votes from Clinton and the Democrats, in fact both are taking votes from Hillary Clinton. We also found while studying the data that there is some truth in the claims that Stein is doing a lot better than published polls show because she is picking up the votes of Bernie Sanders supporters disgusted at the way the Democrat National Committee colluded with the Clinton campaign to steal the nomination from Sanders.

WikiLeaks have covered this and even published a handy guide 37-page poll-rigging guide on how to "include ethnic 'oversamples' as required" to manufacture the desired results.

With today's latest ABC / Washington Post poll, the real "smoking gun" of how polls are manipulated to manipulate votes is revealed as the pollsters admit that the collapse of the apparent Clinton lead is "not mainly about people shifting in their voting intention" but about how their sample pool was constructed.
"Changes in the poll’s latest four nights (due to a public outcry from people in online news sites who understand something of how polls work) compared with the previous four are not mainly about people shifting in their candidate preference, but about changes in who’s intending to vote." Those saying they were not likely to vote were being asked who they would vote for if they HAD to vote. Thus a (relatively) large number of Blacks and Hispanics who said they did not plan to vote and were unlikely to change their minds, were nudged to declare a preference for the Democrat candidate.
So that's one you manufacture incredible results.


ABC / Wapo Poll

So why would allegedly respectable organisations like ABC / Wapo claim that the 10-point swing (in less than a week) was driven by changes in "who's intending to vote," but their own data shows just a 2-point swing in people who said they were "certain to vote" on 23 October, when the poll reflected a 12-point Hillary lead, and 27 October when the lead had collapsed to just 2 points. Are we really expected to believe that a 2-point swing in voter intentions somehow translated to a 10-point swing in the poll result? Something tells us it had a little more to do with excluding ethnic 'oversamples' after being caught cheating for the benefit of their favoured candidate."

So, now that ABC / Wapo have effectively declared their own poll utterly useless, the question is what were their motivations for skewing their polling data? Consider these points:
  • Trump is simply experiencing a huge surge in momentum...seems odd to have this kind of surge on minimal news (remember the poll was taken prior to the recent FBI disclosures).
  • ABC / Wapo pollsters got a slap on the wrist from the Hillary campaign for getting a bit overzealous on their manufactured 12-point "lead" which could have resulted in lower voter turnout for Hillary as supporters decided their vote was not needed.
  • >ABC / Wapo reviewed early voting stats and realized their polls were in no way reflective of reality and decided they'd rather not lose ALL credibility (though may be too late for that).
So does this mean Trump has a better chance of winning than mainstream media are willing to admit? You may say that, we of course could not possibly comment.










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By now it should be obvious that peacemaker, joybringer and putative aquatic pedestrian Barack Hussein Obama was never really in charge of the US Government. Whatever Obama said would happen, all the American government's policies ensured the opposit would happen. The embedded article thows some light on how the US government really works

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Elsewhere: [ The Original Boggart Blog] ... [ Daily Stirre.shtml ]...[Little Nicky Machiavelli]... [ Ian's Authorsden Pages ]... [ It's Bollocks My Dears, All Bollocks ] [Scribd]...[Wikinut] ... [ Boggart Abroad] ... [ Grenteeth Bites ] ... [ Latest Posts ] [Ian Thorpe at Flickr ] ... [Latest Posts] ... [ Tumblr ] ... [Ian at Minds ] ... [ Authorsden blog ] ... [Daily Stirrer News Aggregator]

Latest Clinton Email Shock Not From Wikileaks or DC Leaks But The FBI


The latest release of the Clinton (Podesta) emails from Wikileaks shows yet more incontrovertible evidence of unlawful activity by the Democratic Party presidential candidate or by her associates acting on behalf of her campaign or The Clinton Foundation with her knowledge and approval.



The most shocking revelations from the latest batch has been overshadowed by news of the FBI decision to reopen the investigation into the case of the  notorious private email server Hillary and her staff used to avoid public scrutiny of activities while she was Secretary of State, that constituted at the very least conflicts of interest and in some cases such as the one reported below, of flagrant law breaking.

WikiLeaks SHOCKER: Federal Election Law BROKEN. CONFIRMED!


The law is clear on this issue.
There is no grey area. Hillary’s Campaign cannot spin this. This will force her to stand trial.
Under no circumstances is it legal for a Campaign to collude with a SuperPac, on any level, under any circumstances.
Priorities USA is the largest Democrat SuperPac in existence. They are, as some would say, “the largest Democrat gorilla in the PAC jungle.”
A key player in this story is a person named Avie Glazer. Glazer is one of the top donors to a fund called the Hillary Victory Fund (HVF.) Donors can contribute mountains of cash to HVF. Some have called it a slush fund, as large sums of cash are often distributed to the Democrat National Committee and various campaigns.
Take a look at this graphic:
screen-shot-2016-10-25-at-5-31-01-pm
Again, campaigns are not allowed to collude with SuperPacs like Priorities USA.
Enter WikiLeaks.
The following “reminder” email reveals that the writer, named Latham, advised the Campaign Chairman that Hillary Rodham Clinton (HRC) was to meet with Priorities USA SuperPAC (Priorities) along with Avi Glazer, also known as Avram Glazer and the Hillary Victory Fund (HVF.)
A meeting of this nature is illegal. HRC cannot meet with a SuperPAC.

Read more: https://ihavethetruth.com/2016/10/25/wikileaks-shocker-federal-election-laws-broken-confirmed/#ixzz4OPG21cNJ

The real bombshell of the day however was the FBI's notification to congress that it is reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton's private email server may well cause the Democratic presidential candidate to lose the election, her reputation and her freedom. As to the condition of her appendix, we'll just have to guess, since no one knows the state of her deteriorating health.
And then we have FBI director James Comey, who may well be on his way to losing his office, his seat and his reputation. (I have no information on the status of his appendix.)
And how bizarrely ironic is it that Comey -- who lost considerable credibility a couple of months ago for building an iron-clad case against Clinton only to let her off the hook -- is now reopening her case based not on Russian espionage or Julian Assange's WikiLeaks, but on Anthony Weiner's electronic sex life?
This will not bring honor and glory to J. Edgar Hoover's venerable crime-fighting organization. Comey's announcement, by the way, follows hot on the heels of the revelation that Clinton pal and Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe channeled near $500,000 into the failed state senate campaign of Jill McCabe, who is the wife of FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe, who helped oversee the agency's investigation into Clinton's private email server. And let it be known that Hillary Clinton helped raise $1 million for McAuliffe's PAC.
Did any of these connections have anything to do with Clinton's getting off scot free from a criminal indictment? Nah.
But wait, could it be that Donald Trump's accusation that the system is rigged is correct after all?


Hillary Holds 4 Minute Press Conference: Demands "Full And Complete Facts" From FBI


Hillary Clinton's initial response to the FBI reopening of their investigation into her email security scandal was given in a brief, 3 minute 47 second address to the press. Playing the arrogant elitist to the very end, Hillary attacked the FBI, said that she hopes that whatever information the Bureau has will be shared with the American people and that the FBIU will 'reveal all the facts' and added that she is confident that no charges will be brought against her by the FBI, while taking the opportunity to ask people to go out and vote for her.

At the brief press event Hillary took three questions which some have mockingly said were drafted and/or preapproved by Clinton campaign direction of communications Jennifer Palmier.
"We are 11 days out from perhaps the most important national election of our lifetimes," Clinton said during the brief press conference in Des Moines, Iowa. "Voting is already underway in our country, so the American people deserve to get the full and complete facts immediately."

Mrs Clinton seems to have conveniently forgotten that the secret server scandal would not have been half as damaging had she not gone to ridiculous lengths to avoid releasing any facts regarding the overlap between her duties as Secretary of State and fundraising for The Clinton Foundation.


Hillary revealed that the FBI had not contacted her before or since Comey sent his letter to lawmakers Friday afternoon, informing them that the investigation was to be reopened.
"So we don't know the facts, which is why we are calling on the FBI to release all the information that it has," she said. "Even Director Comey noted that this new information may not be significant, so let's get it out."

What we think may be significant is that when questioned under oath on emails relating to government business that had been held on her private server, and later deleted on instructions from Clinton even though they were the subject of a court order (fortunately the deleted mails were recoverable), she said all emails relating to government business had been handed over to security agencies. If the emails found on Tony Weiner's electronic devices prove to relate to government affairs, clearly Hillary has lied under influence, as tracking shows they were sent via her secret server to the husband of a prominent staffer in order to avoid having then logged on a secured government network.

Comey's letter said that the FBI was reviewing pertinent emails that it found in an unrelated investigation, but did not reveal much more than that. Republicans and the GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump quickly pounced on the news. 

Clinton was asked about a New York Times report that said the FBI had found the new emails in its separate investigation into Anthony Weiner’s sexting scandal.
“We’ve heard these rumors,” she said “We don’t know what to believe. And I'm sure there will be even more rumors. That’s why it’s incumbent on the FBI to tell us what they're talking about, Jeff. Your guess is as good as mine and I don't think that’s not good enough.”

Hillary's statement was similar to what Tim Kaine said earlier: it's "very, very troubling" that the FBI is releasing information about a new probe into emails that may relate to Hillary Clinton just 11 days before the election. The Democratic vice presidential nominee is commenting on the development in an interview with Vice News.  Kaine says the FBI director needs to provide more details on the situation. He suggests it's troubling that members of the press are finding out information before campaign officials. Kaine's comments in turn echo the a statement made by Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta, and thus by Hillary.









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